Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 1.759365 1.829675 1.902932 1.985272 2.075630 2.172225 2.283909
2025-04-13 1.641520 1.739250 1.845373 1.970280 2.114792 2.278718 2.481764
2025-04-20 1.586547 1.702220 1.831435 1.988614 2.177792 2.402651 2.697762
2025-04-27 1.557692 1.689251 1.839865 2.028548 2.264125 2.557136 2.965275
2025-05-04 1.514964 1.655750 1.819867 2.030086 2.300160 2.648669 3.159473
2025-05-11 1.478424 1.626560 1.801947 2.031030 2.333014 2.736301 3.357592
2025-05-18 1.430615 1.580983 1.760893 1.999060 2.318746 2.756384 3.456378
2025-05-25 1.399312 1.553814 1.740784 1.991974 2.336026 2.820591 3.631099
2025-06-01 1.369796 1.527373 1.719969 1.982113 2.347771 2.876476 3.799775
2025-06-08 1.341884 1.501697 1.698740 1.970069 2.354828 2.924853 3.962552
2025-06-15 1.327148 1.491822 1.697050 1.983765 2.398927 3.033778 4.256799
2025-06-22 1.286664 1.447985 1.649599 1.932341 2.344034 2.979019 4.221904
2025-06-29 1.252957 1.412764 1.613422 1.896622 2.312876 2.964380 4.275398
2025-07-06 1.227355 1.387314 1.589377 1.876929 2.304815 2.987730 4.415177
2025-07-13 1.217803 1.382086 1.591674 1.894065 2.353481 3.111902 4.810547
2025-07-20 1.215870 1.386508 1.606789 1.929940 2.433675 3.302033 5.441855
2025-07-27 1.201554 1.374177 1.598636 1.931329 2.458431 3.393120 5.856819
2025-08-03 1.187863 1.362228 1.590500 1.932176 2.482057 3.484796 6.322536
2025-08-10 1.164633 1.337034 1.563344 1.903416 2.454193 3.470198 6.435112
2025-08-17 1.150106 1.323104 1.551385 1.897035 2.463819 3.533537 6.860526
2025-08-24 1.135422 1.308604 1.538180 1.888150 2.468437 3.586845 7.287648
2025-08-31 1.120746 1.293776 1.524086 1.877291 2.468825 3.630995 7.714717
2025-09-07 1.114283 1.289826 1.525099 1.889639 2.510802 3.773392 8.754182